2015: Bad and good memories (George Emile Irani - Arab Times)

This is a time of year to take stock of the year that was. 2015 brought a mix of good and bad memories.
On the good side we are still alive and kicking. The planet is still turning around the sun and good people still fill our social media with words of wisdom.
On the bad side, 2015 brought a further disintegration of what was known as the Middle East: a term concocted by the British colonial power to define the area between Afghanistan and the Levant. Looking at the map today we see a series of states slowly but surely disintegrating.
The war in Syria keeps on going with its daily toll of deaths, displacement and destruction. As of this writing, the mayhem in Syria has led to 10 million refugees, more than 300,000 dead and billions of dollars in economic losses. The war in Syria has become an open theater for regional and global powers to flex their muscles. The Syrian disaster is akin to the second nakba; the first one was when the Palestinians fell victim to Zionist ethnic cleansing.
At the regional level, Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar have staked their prestige and level of influence in the region on the outcome of the ongoing battles in Syria. The recent meeting of the various opposition groups in Saudi Arabia does not bode very well for an early resolution of the conflict. The same applies to the global powers involved in the Syrian mess.
President Putin of Russia has staked his reputation and ambition as the new czar of Russia on the survival of his embattled ally Bashar Al Assad. A just published report by Amnesty International documents that Russian air force attacks have destroyed cities and killed a large number of Syrian civilians. Putin is banking on the available and soon to be exploited oil and natural gas in the Mediterranean facing the Syrian coast.
ISIS and its criminal antics do not seem to be a major target of Moscow imperial designs.
Compared to Putin, Obama and the West look helpless drifting from one failed ad hoc policy to the other. It is very clear in hindsight that the USA, Israel and some Western countries do not want to
see an end to the Assad tyranny. Better the devil you know than the ugly face of asalafijihadi group. After all and in the overall scheme of events ISIS is only a nuisance, a painful criminal nuisance at that.
Close to Syria we have the ailing state of Lebanon. I have agreed to upgrade my definition of Lebanon as a failed state because of its vibrant civil society. Lebanon today is a hostage to unscrupulous and mafia-like warlords that have plundered the country and reduced it to a wobbly geographical expression.
In addition to Lebanon, the Middle East house of cards is tumbling all the way from Sanaa in Yemen to Tripoli in Libya. A big question to ask at the begining of 2016 and that is did the Arabs fail at establishing a viable governance system? Why did countries in Asia and Latin America succeed in entering the XXIst century as viable nation states and the Arabs did not?
Europe is not in a better shape. It has welcomed more than 1 million refugees and populist movements are on the rise.
Recent elections in France, Spain, Denmark, Hungary and Poland are a demonstration that Europeans are fearful and scared of this new wave of immigrants. Unlike the refugees that overwhelmed Western Europe after World War II todays refugees have a different identity, a different culture but still human. This is how one can explain German Chancellor’s Angela Merkel decision to allow almost one million refugees in Germany. She believes in her country and the EU being a beacon of hope and hospitality in spite of jihadi wrought violence.
2016 is dawning upon us and I am hopeful. I see hope in the yearning of my students—men and women—to change and bring in a new order. An order based on gender equality, human rights and a firm acceptance of the other. Let us hope they succeed in their quest.
Happy New Year.

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Dr George Emile Irani is Associate Professor of International Relations at the American University of Kuwait.